The New York Yankees have been going through an incredibly tough stretch, losing six of their last seven series, including a recent demolition by the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday. With the All-Star break about three weeks away, it’s clear that both their pitching and offense have been lackluster.

Yankees starting rotation collapses

But the more pressing issue is the Yankees’ starting rotation, which is falling apart not because of injuries but rather because of poor play. Carlos Rodon, their $162 million acquisition in 2023, has had a dramatic slump this season. After starting with an ERA around 3.00 before June, Rodon’s numbers have fallen off dramatically.

Alarming deterioration of Carlos Rodon’s health

Fast forward to today, and Rodon now has a 4.42 ERA, 4.54 FIP, and 8.84 strikeouts per nine. Of concern is his 75.5% fielding rate and 35% fielding percentage, coupled with the fact that he’s allowed 1.54 home runs per nine games, his second-highest total since 2017. Most of the damage to Rodon’s ERA has come in his last three starts, where he’s given up 20 earned runs, including five homers, over 13.2 innings.

In other words, Rodon has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball lately, and his problems are not injury-related. He lost confidence and was visibly upset in the dugout after his poor performance. His numbers have dropped to troubling levels, with a 25th percentile xERA of 4.65 and an 11th percentile in barrel rate and 16th percentile in hard-hit rate.

Analysis of Rodon’s Throwing Problems

Opposing hitters not only make contact, but also bounce off it. His four-seam fastball, used 50.7% of the time, generates an expected batting average of .290 and an expected slugging percentage of .608. Despite maintaining decent velocity, his fastball has become problematic, likely due to the increased horizontal movement that causes it to drift back into the strike zone.

Broader pitching issues beyond Rodon

Rodon isn’t the only pitcher struggling; Gerrit Cole has struggled to rebound from an ulnar nerve injury, Nestor Cortes is unstable and in regression, and Luis Gil, though he currently has a 3.15 ERA, has recently seen an uptick from around 2.00 for the better part of two months.

Looking ahead: Yankees trade deadline and recovery hopes

It’s only a matter of time before the Yankees experience a massive rotation slide, but no one expected it to happen all at once. The hope is that the team can overcome this difficult situation and start piling up wins as the All-Star break approaches. General Manager Brian Cashman will need to be proactive at the trade deadline, but more importantly, he needs his current roster to strengthen and regain its form.