• Research from 2020 estimated that around 800 deaths in Northern Ireland each year could be attributed to air pollution.
• The latest scientific research (2023) suggests that this figure is higher: 900 premature deaths in Northern Ireland can be attributed to fine particulate air pollution.
• Per capita, there are more deaths caused by poor air quality in Northern Ireland than in Ireland.

The SDLP manifesto for the 2024 general election stated that “poor air quality contributes to 800 deaths in Northern Ireland every year”.

We looked at the data and it is accurate.

The SDLP figure comes from research published in 2020. A more recent analysis estimates the figure is slightly higher and that 900 premature deaths in Northern Ireland per year can be attributed to exposure to fine particulate air pollution.

If we take into account population, the figure for Northern Ireland is higher than for the rest of the island.

FactCheckNI asked the SDLP for the source of this claim and they pointed to a 2020 article in the Belfast Telegraph.

The then Environment Minister Edwin Poots MLA was discussed, who initiated a discussion paper on the Clean Air Strategy for Northern Ireland. A related press release from the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) included a quote from the head of the British Heart Foundation Northern Ireland, Fearghal McKinney, who said that “around 800 deaths in Northern Ireland each year can be attributed to air pollution, which has a significant impact on heart and circulatory health”.

These data come from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease dataset maintained by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

However, a more recent paper – prepared by Technological University Dublin and Queen’s University Belfast, commissioned by the Irish Heart Foundation, the British Heart Foundation Northern Ireland and funded by the Community Foundation Ireland – updates this analysis.

• A Short Science Lesson on Air Pollution and Health

FactCheckNI believes it is important that readers can recreate the numbers behind a claim by starting with the source data and following the steps we have taken in our claim verification process.

In the case of air pollution and health, the science is complicated, and the process is a multi-step statistical one. We are satisfied with the veracity of the source information we have relied on. However, this requires more trust than usual: in this case, trust in peer-reviewed studies and the widely used methods of analysis in this sector of epidemiology.

• What is the scientific evidence on air pollution and its link to poor health?

Buckle up. In its simplest form…

People don’t die from air pollution. It’s not an instant poison. Instead, poor air quality has a detrimental effect on your health.

To summarise the much more detailed context section in the 2023 report on air pollution and mortality on the island of Ireland and the air pollution guidance issued by the Office for Health Improvement and Inequalities (formerly Public Health England), we learn:

• Air pollution can come from natural sources, such as forest fires, pollen, and volcanic eruptions. But it is also a byproduct of human activity—“anthropogenic” air pollution—such as burning fossil fuels and home heating systems, especially those that burn coal, wood, or peat. While you may be exposed to these fine particles at home or in indoor work environments, research has focused on outdoor air pollution.
• “…every time we burn something, we release particles into the air that are harmful to our health.”
• Fine particulate matter (known as PM_2.5) that can be inhaled by humans are small enough to enter the lungs and from there into the bloodstream. Long-term exposure to such particles can ultimately damage the pulmonary and cardiovascular systems. These harmful pollutants can narrow and harden blood vessels, leading to abnormal heart rhythms, high blood pressure and an increased risk of fatal heart attacks and strokes.
• The World Health Organization (WHO) lists poor air quality as one of the leading causes of preventable disease and premature death, attributing 4.2 million deaths per year worldwide to exposure to air pollution.
• WHO estimates that in 2019, about 37% of premature deaths related to outdoor air pollution were caused by ischemic heart disease and stroke.
• Reducing levels of fine particulate pollution would help reduce morbidity (a state of feeling unwell due to a given disease or situation) and mortality (the number of deaths in a population).

It is important to emphasize that when researchers make estimates of premature deaths, NO giving a direct result on the number of deaths that actually occurred in a given area due to PM_2.5 exposure. Rather, they indicate how the level of PM_2.5 Air pollution in a given region increases the risk of mortality among the local population by an amount equal to a certain number of deaths.

For the island of Ireland, the research combines:

1. data on exposure to pollutants in different regions from the European Environment Agency (EEA);
2. Regional mortality data from the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA) and the Central Statistics Office (CSO), but excluding deaths due to ‘external causes’ such as accidents, homicide, suicide etc.
3. estimates of the proportion of deaths in each region that can be attributed to long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter_2.5 air pollution from the statement of the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollution (COMEAP) on the quantification of mortality associated with long-term exposure to PM_2.5 which included a meta-analysis of global studies.

The study used data from 2019 because it is the most recent year for which data was not disrupted by COVID-19.

The 2023 study we rely on for this fact check also includes a subset of deaths due to cardiovascular disease.

• What is the data for Northern Ireland?

European Environment Agency data on regional particulate matter concentrations can be broken down by council area of ​​operation. The highest level of 10.1 μg/m3 was recorded in Belfast³ followed by Antrim and Newtownabbey (9.4). The lowest levels are expected to be in Fermanagh and Omagh (7.4).

Looking at Northern Ireland as a whole, and Ireland for comparison:

Source: Based on tables 1 and 2 in the report Air Pollution and Mortality on the Island of Ireland (2023)

The researchers “estimate that around 1,700 premature deaths (680 from cardiovascular disease) in Ireland and 900 (300 from cardiovascular disease) in Northern Ireland can be attributed to exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution.”

The researchers acknowledge that these new “mortality estimates are higher than those published by the European Environment Agency (EEA) or the Global Burden of Disease Study for ROI in 2019, and by Public Health England (PHE) for NI in 2010 or the Global Burden of Disease for NI in 2019. This reflects our use of updated dose-response functions based on growing scientific evidence that exposure to PM2.5 is more harmful than previously thought.”

• Is air pollution in Northern Ireland bad?

To be able to compare results from different populations, we need to standardize them.

The estimated number of people aged 16 years and over in Northern Ireland at mid-2019 was 1,529,994. The total population of the ROI in 2019 was 4,921,500 and the number of people aged 15 years and over was 3,912,600.

These numbers allow us to calculate comparable statistics for the number of deaths attributed per 100,000 inhabitants.

Northern Ireland has a higher number of deaths from fine particulate air pollution per 100,000 population than the Republic of Ireland.

The researchers analysed data for the whole of Ireland, by council area.

Northern Ireland’s local government counties account for 6 of the top 10 – and the top 4 overall – across the island of Ireland, with Cork and Dublin City Councils being the areas with the highest ROI.

• What can be done to improve air quality and reduce premature deaths?

Policy work following DAERA’s Clean Air Strategy Discussion Document consultation has been slow. The rest of the UK has published Clean Air Strategies, but only England has banned the sale of some materials.

In May 2021, England introduced restrictions on the sale of wet wood for domestic burning, limits on sulphur and smoke emissions from solid fuels produced by the production method, and began phasing out the sale of hard coal.

The Welsh Government’s policy objective is to avoid further extraction and use of fossil fuels. They plan to develop legislation to restrict the sale of hard coal, wet wood and industrially produced solid fuels, and this is expected to be carried out during the Senedd’s term (ending in May 2026). The Scottish Government’s Clean Air for Scotland (CAFS2) strategy is investigating “a ban on the sale of hard coal and industrially produced solid fuels with a sulphur content greater than 2% for domestic use”.