Wildfire risk in NM expected to increase later this month after break due to rain • Source New Mexico
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Wildfire risk in NM expected to increase later this month after break due to rain • Source New Mexico

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Early monsoon rains that helped firefighters extinguish the South Fork and Salt fires in southern New Mexico were part of a statewide trend that has reduced the risk of wildfires for at least the next few weeks, according to a forecast released this week.

Forecasters warn the risk of wildfires will return with a vengeance, likely to reappear later this month and potentially last into the autumn, according to monthly forecasts published by the National Interagency Fire Center.

The fire risk will be higher than usual, the center said, starting in late July and into August along the Continental Divide and east of it. Forecasters expect hot, dry conditions throughout the month, with little change in September, according to the forecast.

The high risk could persist much longer than usual, “even until October,” the forecast said.

Thanks to early monsoon rains, New Mexico’s wildfire forecast for July is much better. However, forecasters warn that August and September could be hot and dry enough to make the fire risk higher than usual. (Photo courtesy of National Interagency Fire Center)

In May, the NIFC forecast for July predicted that much of the state, including central New Mexico along the mountain ranges and southern New Mexico, would experience hot, dry conditions, raising the risk of wildfires above average.

There have been 437 wildfires statewide this year, burning a combined 62,654 acres, according to the Southwest Coordination Center. Of those, 97 were caused by lightning and 269 by humans. The remaining 71 are unknown, according to the center.

The South Fork and Salt Fires started June 17 and quickly became dangerous, damaging or destroying about 1,400 structures and killing two people, state officials said.

The area has been experiencing heavy rain since June 19, which contributed to increased humidity and suppressed fire growth, but also caused flash flooding and debris flows in and around the fire scar.

Public records and lightning data shed new light on origin of Salt and South Fork fires

Both fires were about 85% contained Tuesday. With moisture dispersed, the few pockets remaining within the fire perimeters are not expected to pose a significant threat “and will remain quiescent unless a trend of drying occurs,” state forestry spokesman George Ducker said in a statement Tuesday.

The causes of both fires are still “undetermined,” the incident command team responsible for extinguishing the blaze said, but the Federal Bureau of Investigation is assisting investigators as they work to determine what sparked the deadly blazes.

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